When does more mean worse? Accuracy of judgmental forecasting is nonlinearly related to length of data series
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Viruses and lower respiratory tract infections: does more mean worse?
issue of Respiration, Gencay et al. [1] used serology for a panel of 8 common human viruses (adenovirus, enterovirus, influenza viruses A and B, parainfluenza viruses 1, 2 and 3, and respiratory syncytial virus) to document evidence of acute viral infection in patients diagnosed with LRTI. Major endpoints studied included: comparison of the proportion of individuals showing positive viral serol...
متن کاملOn the accuracy of judgmental interventions on forecasting support systems
All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission, provided that full acknowledgement is given. Abstract Forecasting at the Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) disaggregate level in order to support operations management has proved a very difficult task. The levels of accuracy achieved have major consequences for companies at all levels in...
متن کاملJudgmental Decomposition: When Does It Work?
We hypothesized that multiplicative decomposition would improve accuracy only in certain conditions. In particular, we expected it to help for problems involving extreme and uncertain values. We first reanalyzed results from two published studies. Decomposition improved accuracy for nine problems that involved extreme and uncertain values, but for six problems with target values that were not e...
متن کاملGenome Size: Does Bigger Mean Worse?
Genome sizes vary enormously. This variation in DNA content correlates with effective population size, suggesting that deleterious additions to the genome can accumulate in small populations. On this view, the increased complexity of biological functions associated with large genomes partly reflects evolutionary degeneration.
متن کاملWhen more does not necessarily mean better: Health-related illfare comparisons with non-monotone welfare relationships
Most welfare studies are based on the assumption that wellbeing is monotonically related to the variables used for the analysis. While this assumption can be regarded as reasonable for many dimensions of wellbeing like income, education, or empowerment, there are some cases where it is definitively not relevant, in particular with respect to health. For instance, health status is often proxied ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Omega
سال: 2019
ISSN: 0305-0483
DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2018.11.009